Weekly Market Brief
The week in rates, lenders and lending policy — translated into plain English for home owners, buyers and investors — wherever you are in Australia.
EDITION 08 · WEEK ENDING SUNDAY 18 OCTOBER 2026
The numbers that matter
Your one-glance snapshot as at Sunday 18 October 2026. A weak jobs report cut the odds of a November rate rise, even though the RBA’s minutes left the door open. The September inflation figures on Wed 28 October are now the big test before the RBA meets on Tue 3 November.
This week in 60 seconds
Four things that happened, and why they touch your mortgage.
- The jobs market cooled. The ABS says 39,300 fewer people were employed in September, and the unemployment rate sits at 4.7%, the highest since the pandemic years. Fewer people are looking for work too, with participation down to 66.8%. A softer jobs market is exactly what the RBA has been trying to engineer, and it makes another rise less urgent.
- November hike odds fell sharply. On the ASX RBA Rate Tracker, the chance of a rise on 3 November dropped from 27% to 16% the day the jobs figures came out. That’s despite the RBA’s September minutes (13 October) sounding firm: the Board said inflation “remained too high” and it would do what’s needed, including raising rates further if required. Read our RBA Minutes Decoded →
- Lenders finished passing on the rise. Canstar’s latest count (13 October) has 40 lenders passing on the September increase, lifting 375 variable rates by an average of 0.25. Twenty-one lenders also raised 510 fixed rates by an average of 0.21, and there’s no longer a fixed rate under 6% in the market. More lenders’ increases took effect this week, including Macquarie, HSBC and Bank Australia, while about 15 smaller lenders are yet to announce theirs.
- Buyers still have the upper hand at auction. Domain’s preliminary results for Saturday show clearance rates of 52% in Sydney, 53% in Melbourne, 63% in Canberra, 30% in Adelaide and just 17% in Brisbane. Results this soft mean more room to negotiate on price and conditions, particularly on homes that are passed in.
What it means for you
Where you sit decides what this week’s news means for your hip pocket.
🏦 On a variable rate
Canstar puts the average owner-occupier variable rate at 6.75%. That’s a repayment of about $3,243 a month per $500k. The market now thinks a November rise is unlikely, but if it happens, another 0.25 would add about $84 a month per $500k. Check the date on your lender’s notice so you know when your repayment changes.
⏳ Fixed rate expiring
Every fixed rate in the market is now above 6%. ANZ’s one-year fixed rate of 6.69% is the lowest of the big four. That’s about $3,223 a month per $500k, only around $20 a month less than the 6.75% average variable. With little saving from fixing, the question is whether you want certainty or flexibility. Compare both before you roll over.
🔄 Thinking of refinancing
Canstar expects the lowest advertised variable rate to settle at about 5.94% once every lender has passed on the rise. Moving from the 6.75% average to a rate like that would save about $264 a month per $500k, or around $3,170 a year. Some lenders also offer refinance cashbacks of up to $4,000, with conditions.
Smart moves this week
Four things you can do while the RBA waits on inflation.
- Check what you’re actually paying. If your rate is well above the 6.75% average, ask your lender for a better one, or get a second opinion.
- Keep a buffer. Even with lower odds, ANZ and Westpac still tip a November rise. Another 0.25 would add about $84 a month per $500k, so put that aside now if you can.
- If your fixed rate ends in the next few months, start comparing now. The gap between fixed and variable is small, so the right choice depends on what matters more to you.
- Diary: Wed 28 October, 11:30am (September CPI, including the September-quarter figures) and Tue 3 November, 2:30pm (RBA decision, with a same-day Rate Call update here on the blog).
Where rates could head next
No change to the big four’s calls this week: two still tip a hold and two still tip a November hike.
NAB is sticking with its call for an extended hold after September’s rise. It sees cuts possible from August 2027.
CBA expects a hold in November but calls the meeting “live”, with the risk tilted towards a rise. It expects two cuts in 2027, in August and November.
+0.25 to 4.85%. ANZ kept its call after the jobs data, saying a November rise is still “more likely than not”. It doesn’t expect cuts until November 2027.
+0.25 to 4.85%. Westpac still has a November rise as its base case. It sees cuts from August 2027.
Translation: the banks are still split, but the market has moved firmly towards a hold. Traders now put the chance of a November rise at about one in six, down from more than one in four a week ago. The September inflation figures on 28 October will decide it. If they come in hot, a Melbourne Cup Day rise is back on the table. Budget for one more rise and treat a hold as a bonus.
Wondering what your rate should be?
REMC Finance is an AFG award-winning broker comparing 40+ lenders for borrowers Australia-wide. Contact me by phone, text or email, or submit an enquiry form — for a free, no-obligation rate health check. Or I can come to you — by phone, video or in person.