RBA Minutes Decoded
The Reserve Bank’s own account of why it lifted rates to 4.60% on 29 September — and what it tells us about the 3 November decision. In plain English, for home owners, buyers and investors wherever you are in Australia.
MINUTES OF THE 29 SEPTEMBER MEETING · RELEASED 13 OCTOBER 2026
In 60 seconds
Four things the minutes tell us that the decision-day statement didn’t.
- It was unanimous, and a hold got only a brief hearing. All nine Board members backed the 0.25 rise to 4.60%. The case for holding rested on falling house prices, uncertainty in the Middle East and the delayed effect of earlier rises, but the Board judged those risks weren’t enough to outweigh the inflation problem.
- The inflation risks the RBA flagged in August have partly come true. July’s monthly inflation was stronger than expected, particularly for services, and petrol and diesel prices were running 13% above what the August forecasts assumed. RBA staff think the surprise says more about pressure inside the Australian economy than about oil. The August forecast had inflation back at the middle of the 2–3% target by around late 2027, but that relied on several things going right, and the Board no longer thinks they all will.
- Rates may not be as tight as they look. The Board judged financial conditions “somewhat restrictive”, but noted that if the “neutral” interest rate has risen, the old 4.35% cash rate was doing less work than it was two years ago. Surveys also show businesses expecting higher inflation over the next few years, which the RBA treats as a warning sign.
- Households are under pressure but mostly coping. Scheduled mortgage repayments are about 10% of household disposable income, around the 2024 peak. House prices fell more than expected and new home loans dropped sharply, led by investors. Even so, arrears are low and fewer than 2% of owner-occupiers are estimated to be spending more than they earn.
What the Board is watching
The minutes list what would push the RBA to move again. These are the three that matter most for your mortgage.
🔥 Inflation and what businesses expect
Services prices, labour costs (growing faster than productivity) and whether firms’ inflation expectations keep drifting up. August’s annual CPI was 4.0%, with the core measure at 3.6%.
Next test: September CPI, Wed 28 Oct, 11:30am.
👷 Jobs and spare capacity
Unemployment rose to 4.6% in August, but more people were looking for work, and the Board was wary of recent changes to the jobs survey. Leading indicators point to a broadly steady jobs market. If the economy is running hotter than the RBA thinks, rates go higher.
Next test: September jobs data, Thu 15 Oct, 11:30am.
🌏 Fuel prices and the world
The Middle East conflict and oil prices, demand from our trading partners, and how much higher fuel and energy costs flow into other prices. Several overseas central banks have already raised rates, and long-term bond yields rose notably.
No fixed date — this one can move any day.
What it means for the next meeting
The next decision is Tuesday 3 November at 2:30pm, six days after the September CPI. The minutes end with the Board saying it will do what is needed, “including increasing the cash rate target further if required”. Markets didn’t change their view much today: the ABC reports the odds of a November rise at about 33%, with roughly a 50% chance of a rise by the end of the year. Economists are split. Westpac and ANZ tip a rise to 4.85% in November, while CommBank and NAB expect a hold, although NAB’s chief economist Sally Auld said today that the risks lean towards a little more tightening. My read: November is a genuine coin-toss that leans to a hold, and the 28 October inflation figures will decide it. Plan for one more rise and treat a hold as a bonus.
What to do now
Three practical steps before 3 November.
- Stress-test for one more 0.25 rise. Taking Canstar’s estimated average variable rate of 6.49% to 6.74% adds about $83 a month per $500k, $124 per $750k and $165 per $1m (30-year principal and interest).
- Check your rate against the market. Canstar estimates the average owner-occupier variable rate at 6.49% once September’s rise flows through, and the sharpest advertised variable rates are well below that. If yours is above average, ask your lender to sharpen it, or let me compare it for you.
- Diary the dates that will decide November: Thu 15 October, 11:30am (September jobs), Wed 28 October, 11:30am (September CPI) and Tue 3 November, 2:30pm (RBA decision).
Want to know where your loan stands?
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