Weekly Market Brief
The week in rates, lenders and lending policy — translated into plain English for home owners, buyers and investors — wherever you are in Australia.
EDITION 09 · WEEK ENDING SUNDAY 25 OCTOBER 2026
The numbers that matter
Your one-glance snapshot as at Sunday 25 October 2026. One speech from the RBA’s deputy governor turned November from a likely hold into a coin toss. Now Wednesday’s inflation figures (Wed 28 October, 11:30am) will decide it, ahead of the RBA decision on Melbourne Cup Day, Tue 3 November at 2:30pm.
This week in 60 seconds
Four things that happened, and why they touch your mortgage.
- The RBA’s deputy governor sounded the alarm. Speaking in Sydney on Wednesday 21 October, Andrew Hauser said inflation is “materially worse” than the RBA forecast in August. He warned that a growing share of businesses now see inflation of 3% to 3.5% as normal, which he called a “central banker’s nightmare”. He said answers would come “in a week or two”, which markets read as a signal for November.
- November hike odds more than tripled. Market pricing for a rise on 3 November jumped from about 22% on Tuesday to about 51% on Wednesday, and sat at 56% by Saturday morning. Goldman Sachs switched its call to a November rise, and UBS called the speech “hawkish”. A rise would take the cash rate to 4.85%.
- Lenders are still repricing. Canstar’s weekly wrap (20 October) found 26 lenders lifted 182 variable rates by an average of 0.24, while six lenders raised 56 fixed rates by an average of 0.21. Two lenders trimmed six fixed rates. The lowest advertised variable rate in the market is now 5.89%, and a few banks are yet to pass on September’s rise.
- Auctions stayed soft. Domain’s preliminary results for the week to Saturday 24 October show clearance rates of 56% in Melbourne (up from 53%), 45% in Sydney (down from 52%), 46% in Canberra, 28% in Adelaide and 20% in Brisbane. With rate-rise talk back, buyers still have room to negotiate on price and conditions.
What it means for you
Where you sit decides what this week’s news means for your hip pocket.
🏦 On a variable rate
Canstar’s latest published average owner-occupier variable rate is 6.75% (13 October). That’s a repayment of about $3,243 a month per $500k. If the RBA lifts rates on 3 November and your lender passes it on in full, another 0.25 would add about $84 a month per $500k.
⏳ Fixed rate expiring
Lenders are still nudging fixed rates up, by an average of 0.21 in the latest wrap. On a $500k loan at around 6.75%, a 0.21 rise is about $70 a month extra. If your fixed term ends soon, ask your lender what rate you’ll roll onto now, and compare it before it kicks in.
🔄 Thinking of refinancing
Moving from the 6.75% average to a rate like the market’s lowest advertised 5.89% would save about $281 a month per $500k, or around $3,370 a year. Some lenders also offer refinance cashbacks of up to $4,000, with minimum loan and LVR conditions. Check the comparison rate and any break costs first.
Smart moves this week
Four things you can do before the RBA decides.
- Check what you’re actually paying. If your rate is well above the 6.75% average, ask your lender for a better one, or get a second opinion.
- Plan for a rise. With the market now leaning towards a November hike, put aside the extra $84 a month per $500k now, so it’s not a shock if it happens.
- If you’re buying, check your pre-approval. Lenders test you at a buffer above your rate, so a rise can trim how much you can borrow. Ask before you bid.
- Diary: Wed 28 October, 11:30am (September inflation, including the September-quarter figures) and Tue 3 November, 2:30pm (RBA decision and new forecasts, with a same-day Rate Call update here on the blog).
Where rates could head next
No change to the big four’s calls this week: two still tip a hold and two still tip a November hike. But the hold camp is getting nervous.
NAB still expects the RBA to hold in November. It forecasts the September-quarter underlying inflation at 1.0%, or 3.6% for the year.
CBA’s baseline is still a hold, but it says the risk of another rise has increased and the decision depends heavily on Wednesday’s inflation figures.
+0.25 to 4.85%. A November rise remains ANZ’s base case, and it expects underlying inflation of 1.0% for the quarter.
+0.25 to 4.85%. Westpac still has a November rise as its base case, and recently lifted its near-term inflation forecasts after fuel prices rose more than expected.
Translation: a week ago the market thought a November rise was a long shot. Now it’s slightly better than even. The big four economists all expect underlying inflation of about 0.9–1.0% for the September quarter, above the RBA’s August forecast of 0.8%. If Wednesday’s figures land there or higher, a Melbourne Cup Day rise looks likely. Budget for it now, and treat a hold as a bonus.
Wondering what your rate should be?
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