RBA Rate Call
The Reserve Bank has lifted the cash rate for the fourth time this year. Here’s what changed this afternoon, and what it means for your home loan, wherever you are in Australia.
TUESDAY 29 SEPTEMBER 2026 · DECISION: HIKE +25bp to 4.60%
The decision in numbers
Announced at 2:30pm (AEST) on Tuesday 29 September 2026.
What the RBA said
The short version: inflation is still too high, and the Board is prepared to go further.
- Inflation surprised on the upside. The Board said recent inflation outcomes were stronger than expected and that “some of the upside risks to inflation are materialising” — pointing to higher global energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict, strong technology demand linked to AI, and capacity constraints here at home.
- Demand needs to stay subdued. Even after three earlier hikes this year, the RBA judged that spending needs to stay soft for a while to take pressure off prices. Its stated focus is making sure high inflation does not become embedded.
- The door is open to more. The Board kept its tightening bias, saying it will keep doing what it considers necessary — including raising the cash rate further if needed.
- It noticed the cooling, too. The statement acknowledged that home prices fell in most capital cities, new housing loans declined noticeably, consumer spending growth is easing and the jobs market has loosened broadly as expected. That’s why most big-bank economists think this could be the last hike — but not all of them.
What it means for your repayments
Based on the average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.61% (Canstar, 22 September) rising to 6.86% if your lender passes the full 0.25 on. Principal and interest over 30 years, rounded.
🏠 $500,000 loan
+$83 a month
From about $3,197 to $3,280 a month — roughly $1,000 more a year.
🏡 $750,000 loan
+$125 a month
From about $4,795 to $4,919 a month — roughly $1,500 more a year.
🏘️ $1,000,000 loan
+$166 a month
From about $6,393 to $6,559 a month — roughly $2,000 more a year.
When will you feel it? Lenders usually confirm their response within a day or two and apply it about one to two weeks later. After March’s hike, all four big banks passed it on in full, effective 27–31 March (Canstar). As at this afternoon, no lender had yet confirmed its response to today’s move — watch for an email or letter from your lender with the effective date and your new repayment.
What to do this week
Four practical steps while the new rate filters through.
- Check your rate. If your lender passes this on in full, an average variable borrower moves to about 6.86% — while the best advertised variable in market is 5.69% (Canstar, 29 Sep). On $500k, that gap is roughly $381 a month.
- Update your direct debit or budget as soon as your lender confirms the new repayment — don’t wait for the first higher payment to surprise you.
- Stress-test for one more rise. ANZ tips November, taking the cash rate to 4.85%. Another 0.25 would add about $84 a month per $500k — around $167 on top of your pre-hike repayment.
- Diary Wed 28 October (quarterly CPI) and Tue 3 November, 2:30pm (next RBA decision). If your fixed rate expires in the next six months, get quotes now — fixed rates have been repriced quickly this spring.
Worried about the new repayment?
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