The decision in numbers

Announced at 2:30pm (AEDT) on Tuesday 3 November 2026.

What the RBA said

The short version: inflation is lasting longer than expected, and a divided Board chose to act again.

• Inflation will take longer to come down. The RBA now expects inflation to stay elevated “through much of 2027”. It doesn’t see it back at the top of its 2–3% target until late 2027, about three quarters later than it forecast in August. Higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict and AI-driven demand for technology goods are part of the story.
• It’s about local demand, not just oil. At her 3:30pm press conference, Governor Michele Bullock said the rise targets domestic inflation, where spending is running ahead of what the economy can supply. The Board flagged a growing risk that higher inflation expectations become embedded.
• A rare split. Six Board members voted to raise rates and three voted to hold at 4.60%. Those who wanted to hold saw more downside risks and wanted more time to see the data. September’s decision was unanimous.
• No promises either way. Bullock said she doesn’t know what the next move will be, and that it’s probably good to wait for the data. The Board acknowledged that home prices have fallen significantly, unemployment has risen and household spending is softening, but judged that inflation still matters more.

What it means for your repayments

Based on the average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.84% (Canstar, 27 October) rising to 7.09% if your lender passes the full 0.25 on. Principal and interest over 30 years, rounded.

When will you feel it? Lenders usually confirm their response within a day or two and apply it about one to two weeks later. As at this afternoon, the big four and other major lenders were all still listed as “pending” (Savings.com.au, Compare the Market, 3 Nov). Watch for an email or letter from your lender with the effective date and your new repayment.

What to do this week

Four practical steps while the new rate filters through.

1. Check your rate. If your lender passes this on in full, an average variable borrower moves to about 7.09%. The lowest advertised variable rate in Canstar’s database was 5.89% (27 Oct). On $500k, that gap is roughly $394 a month.
2. Update your direct debit or budget as soon as your lender confirms the new repayment. Don’t wait for the first higher payment to catch you out.
3. Keep a buffer for one more rise. Going into today, ANZ flagged a risk of 5.10% in December or February, and Westpac said the risk of another rise, most likely in February, had increased. Another 0.25 would add about $85 a month per $500k.
4. Diary Wed 25 November (monthly inflation figures) and Tue 8 December, 2:30pm (next RBA decision). If your fixed rate expires in the next six months, get quotes now, and if you’re buying, re-check your pre-approval, as a higher rate can trim how much you can borrow.