Weekly Market Brief
The week in rates, lenders and lending policy — translated into plain English for home owners, buyers and investors — wherever you are in Australia.
EDITION 10 · WEEK ENDING SUNDAY 1 NOVEMBER 2026
The numbers that matter
Your one-glance snapshot as at Monday 2 November 2026. It’s RBA decision week: the Board announces its decision on Melbourne Cup Day, Tuesday 3 November at 2:30pm, and I’ll post a same-day Rate Call update here on the blog. After Wednesday’s hot inflation figures, the market and all four big banks now expect a rise.
This week in 60 seconds
Four things that happened, and why they touch your mortgage.
- Inflation came in hot. The ABS said on Wednesday 28 October that prices rose 4.3% in the 12 months to September, up from 4.0% in August, and 0.8% in the month alone. Fuel jumped 9.4% in September, and housing costs were up 5.2% over the year. The RBA’s preferred underlying measure, the trimmed mean, rose 1.0% for the September quarter, above the 0.8% the RBA forecast in August.
- All four big banks now tip a rise on Tuesday. CommBank and NAB switched from a hold to a hike on 28 October, joining ANZ and Westpac. All four expect the cash rate to go from 4.60% to 4.85%. CBA called it an “insurance hike”. Markets agree: money-market pricing put the chance of a November rise at 69% before the inflation figures and 88% by this morning (The Adviser, 2 November). ASX 30-day futures show about 81%, up from 56% on 23 October. A hold on Tuesday would now be a genuine surprise.
- Cheap rates are thinning out. Canstar’s weekly wrap (27 October) found three lenders lifted 18 variable rates by an average of 0.24, while three trimmed 10 rates by an average of 0.08. Only 12 rates are now under 6%, down from 19 a week earlier.
- Home values and auctions are both sliding. Cotality’s October figures, out this morning, show national home values fell 1.2% in October, the seventh fall in a row, and are now 6.7% below the March peak. Cotality’s preliminary clearance rate across the capitals was 47.2% last week, the lowest since April 2020, with Sydney at 53.8%. Melbourne auction numbers were down 38% ahead of the Cup.
What it means for you
Where you sit decides what this week’s news means for your hip pocket.
🏦 On a variable rate
Canstar puts the average owner-occupier variable rate (principal and interest) at 6.84% (27 October). That’s a repayment of about $3,273 a month per $500k. If the RBA lifts by 0.25 on Tuesday and your lender passes it on in full, you’d pay about $3,357, or $84 a month more per $500k.
⏳ Fixed rate expiring
When a fixed term ends, most loans roll onto the lender’s variable rate. Rolling onto a rate like the 6.84% average means about $3,273 a month per $500k, rising to about $3,357 if Tuesday’s rise is passed on. Ask your lender now what your roll-off rate will be, and compare it before it kicks in.
🔄 Thinking of refinancing
Moving from the 6.84% average to a rate like the market’s lowest advertised 5.89% would save about $310 a month per $500k, or around $3,700 a year. Some specials have end dates, so check the comparison rate, fees and any break costs first.
Smart moves this week
Four things you can do before Tuesday afternoon.
- Budget for the rise now. Put aside the extra $84 a month per $500k from this week, so it’s not a shock when your lender’s letter arrives.
- Check what you’re actually paying. If your rate is well above the 6.84% average, a rate rise is a good moment to ask your lender for a better deal, or get a second opinion.
- If you’re buying, re-check your pre-approval. Lenders test you at a buffer above your rate, so a rise can trim how much you can borrow. Ask before you bid, and don’t assume last month’s number still holds.
- Diary: Tue 3 November, 2:30pm (RBA decision, with a same-day Rate Call update here on the blog), 3:30pm (Governor’s media conference). Next inflation figures: Wed 25 November.
Where rates could head next
Big change this week: CommBank and NAB both switched to a November hike, so all four majors now agree. The question has moved to what happens after Tuesday.
+0.25 to 4.85%. Switched from a hold on 28 October. NAB expects the RBA to pause after November.
+0.25 to 4.85%. Switched from a hold on 28 October, calling it an “insurance hike”. CBA then expects holds in December and February, with cuts pencilled in from August 2027.
+0.25 to 4.85%. No change to ANZ’s call, and it sees a material risk of a further rise to 5.10% in December or February.
+0.25 to 4.85%. Westpac reaffirmed its call. More rises after next week aren’t its base case, but it says the risk of another one, most likely in February, has increased.
Translation: a week ago November looked like a coin toss. Now the market and all four big banks point the same way. A rise to 4.85% on Tuesday is the clear expectation, and a hold would be a genuine surprise. The bigger question is whether 4.85% is the peak. Most of the majors think so for now, but ANZ and Westpac flag the risk of another rise by February. Plan for 4.85%, and keep a little extra buffer in case.
Wondering what your rate should be?
REMC Finance is an AFG award-winning broker comparing 40+ lenders for borrowers Australia-wide. Contact me by phone, text or email, or submit an enquiry form — for a free, no-obligation rate health check. Or I can come to you — by phone, video or in person.