Weekly Market Brief
The week in rates, lenders and lending policy — translated into plain English for home owners, buyers and investors — wherever you are in Australia.
EDITION 06 · WEEK ENDING SUNDAY 4 OCTOBER 2026
The numbers that matter
Your one-glance snapshot as at Sunday 4 October 2026 — the RBA lifted the cash rate on Tuesday, and the big four banks pass it on to variable borrowers this Friday 9 October.
This week in 60 seconds
Four things that happened, and why they touch your mortgage.
- The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60%. Tuesday’s 0.25 rise was the fourth this year and takes the cash rate to its highest since November 2011. The Board said inflation “remains elevated”, pointing to higher global energy prices and capacity pressures at home, and that it will raise rates further “if needed”. My same-day wrap is here: RBA Rate Call — 29 September 2026.
- Inflation jumped to 4.0%, but the core number held. Wednesday’s August CPI showed annual inflation up from 3.5% to 4.0%, with fuel prices rising 14.8% in the month. The trimmed mean — the underlying measure the RBA watches most closely — stayed at 3.6% for a third month. That was enough for money markets to cut the odds of a November hike to around 20%.
- All four big banks are passing it on in full. CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ will each lift variable home loan rates by 0.25 on Friday 9 October. None of the big four will have an advertised variable rate starting with a 5 after that. Savings.com.au counts more than 40 lenders that have announced rises, with effective dates from 2 to 16 October.
- Home values and auctions kept sliding. Cotality’s national index fell 1.1% in September, with Brisbane (−1.5%) and Sydney (−1.4%) leading the falls. Cotality’s preliminary auction clearance rate was 48.2% this long weekend, down from 50.3% a week earlier. The RBA’s Financial Stability Review (1 October) said most households with mortgages are well placed to manage, “although there are pockets of stress”.
What it means for you
Where you sit decides what this week’s news means for your hip pocket.
🏦 On a variable rate
The average owner-occupier variable was 6.62% before the hike (Canstar, 29 Sep). With a full 0.25 passed on that becomes about 6.87% — roughly $83 a month more per $500k. Your rate changes on your lender’s effective date, but lenders must give notice before lifting your minimum repayment, so the higher payment can take a month or more to show up.
⏳ Fixed rate expiring
Thirteen lenders lifted 312 fixed rates by an average of 0.26% in the week before the RBA met (Canstar). The best advertised fixed rates in market are 5.79% for one year, 6.20% for two and 6.15% for three (Canstar, 4 Oct). On $500k, 6.20% is about $3,062 a month, against about $3,283 at a 6.87% variable.
🔄 Thinking of refinancing
The best advertised variable in market is still 5.69% (Canstar, 4 Oct). Against a 6.87% average that gap is about $384 a month per $500k, though the sharpest rates may lift as smaller lenders pass the hike on. With home values 5.2% below their peak, check your equity first — it affects which rates you can get.
Smart moves this week
Four things you can do before the big four’s increase lands on Friday.
- Look for the email or letter from your lender with your new rate and effective date. If your rate is at or above the ~6.87% average, it’s worth asking your lender for a better one.
- Update your budget now for about $83 a month more per $500k borrowed, and consider making the higher repayment straight away to build a buffer.
- Stress-test for one more rise. Westpac and ANZ tip November; another 0.25 would add about $84 a month per $500k, or around $167 on top of your pre-hike repayment.
- Diary Fri 9 October (big four variable rates rise), Tue 13 October (RBA minutes due), Thu 15 October, 11:30am (September jobs data), Wed 28 October (September CPI) and Tue 3 November, 2:30pm (next RBA decision).
Where rates could head next
Last week all four big banks agreed. This week they’ve split two against two on November.
Expects the RBA to stay on hold from here, reading the Governor’s media conference as a sign the tightening is done.
On hold is the base case, but CBA calls November “live” and sees risks tilting towards another hike.
+0.25 to 4.85%. ANZ says another hike is “more likely than not”, with the August CPI pointing to strong underlying inflation for the September quarter.
+0.25 to 4.85%. Chief economist Luci Ellis said “the bar for a follow-up hike in November is low”.
Translation: markets and two of the big four think the RBA sits tight in November; the other two think it goes again. The tie-breakers are the jobs data on 15 October and the September CPI on 28 October. Budget for one more rise and treat a hold as a bonus.
Wondering what your rate should be?
REMC Finance is an AFG award-winning broker comparing 40+ lenders for borrowers Australia-wide. Contact me by phone, text or email, or submit an enquiry form — for a free, no-obligation rate health check. Or I can come to you — by phone, video or in person.