Weekly Market Brief
The week in rates, lenders and lending policy — translated into plain English for home owners, buyers and investors — wherever you are in Australia.
EDITION 05 · WEEK ENDING SUNDAY 27 SEPTEMBER 2026
The numbers that matter
Your one-glance snapshot as at Sunday 27 September 2026 — it’s RBA decision week: the call lands Tuesday 29 September at 2:30pm (AEST), and I’ll post a same-day Rate Call update on the blog.
This week in 60 seconds
Four things that happened, and why they touch your mortgage.
- All four big banks now expect a hike on Tuesday. By Monday 21 September, CBA and ANZ had brought their calls forward to September, joining NAB and Westpac. The consensus is +0.25 to 4.60% — and ANZ tips a second rise in November, to 4.85%, the highest cash rate since 2008.
- The Governor didn’t push back. Speaking at CEDA on Tuesday 22 September, Michele Bullock said policy must limit the “second round” effects of higher fuel and energy costs, and that unemployment of 4.5–5% would probably take enough heat out of the jobs market. Markets priced the odds of a September hike at around 90% through the week (94% on one measure, 23 Sep).
- Fixed rates jumped — hard. CBA lifted fixed rates by up to 0.48 percentage points on 22 September — almost two standard RBA hikes. In the week to 22 September, ten lenders raised 266 fixed rates by an average of 0.33%, and Westpac now has fixed rates above 7%. Macquarie lifted again on 24 September, taking September’s tally to 18 lenders. Variable rates barely moved: two lenders trimmed three rates by 0.05%.
- Buyers are getting nervous. Cotality’s preliminary auction clearance rate fell to 50.3% on Saturday 26 September, from 54.0% the week before — Melbourne (48.8%) hit its lowest since 2021. National home values fell 0.9% in August (Cotality), now 3.6% below the March peak.
What it means for you
Where you sit decides what this week’s news means for your hip pocket.
🏦 On a variable rate
The average owner-occupier variable is 6.61%, while the best advertised variable in market is 5.69% — on a $500k loan, that gap is roughly $298 a month. A 0.25 hike on Tuesday adds about $83 a month per $500k; two hikes (ANZ’s path) about $167.
⏳ Fixed rate expiring
The fixed-rate window is closing fast. A 0.48-point jump like CBA’s adds about $158 a month per $500k to a new fixed loan. The best advertised one-year fixed in market is still 5.79%, and seven smaller lenders still have fixed rates starting with a 5 (Canstar, 22 Sep) — but expect those to thin out if the RBA moves.
🔄 Thinking of refinancing
Variable pricing has held steady even as fixed rates climb, so the gap between what loyal customers pay and what new customers can get is still wide. Cashbacks of up to $4,000 are still advertised (Finder, 8 Sep) — but judge the rate first; the cashback is the bonus, not the reason.
Smart moves this week
Four things you can do before the RBA calls it on Tuesday 29 September.
- Check your current rate on your statement or app. If it’s at or above the ~6.61% average, you’re paying a “loyalty tax” of around $298 a month per $500k versus the best advertised variable.
- If you’re weighing up fixing, get quotes now — lenders are repricing fixed rates within days, not weeks, and the rates starting with a 5 are getting scarce.
- Stress-test your budget for two hikes: about $167 a month more per $500k borrowed. If that pinches, build a buffer in your offset or redraw before Tuesday.
- Diary Tue 29 September, 2:30pm (RBA decision; Governor’s media conference 3:30pm) and Wed 30 September, 11:30am (August CPI). Watch the blog on Tuesday afternoon for my Rate Call update.
Where rates could head next
For the first time this cycle, all four big banks agree on the timing — they now differ only on what comes after.
+0.25 on 29 September to 4.60%, with November a live possibility. The first of the big four to call September.
+0.25 to 4.60%, then cuts resuming in 2027 — later than it previously expected.
Two rises, peaking at 4.85% — the most hawkish of the big four, citing the escalating Middle East conflict.
+0.25 to 4.60%. Chief economist Luci Ellis said RBA communication “has clearly escalated”.
Translation: Tuesday looks close to a done deal — the real question is whether it’s one and done, or whether November follows (markets saw that as roughly 50/50 on 22 Sep). Wednesday’s inflation numbers will shape that answer. Plan your budget for two rises and treat anything less as a bonus.
Wondering what your rate should be?
REMC Finance is an AFG award-winning broker comparing 40+ lenders for borrowers Australia-wide. Contact me by phone, text or email, or submit an enquiry form — for a free, no-obligation rate health check. Or I can come to you — by phone, video or in person.