Weekly Market Brief
The week in rates, lenders and lending policy — translated into plain English for home owners, buyers and investors — wherever you are in Australia.
EDITION 04 · WEEK ENDING SUNDAY 20 SEPTEMBER 2026
The numbers that matter
Your one-glance snapshot as at Monday 21 September 2026 — RBA decision week is here.
This week in 60 seconds
Four things that happened, and why they touch your mortgage.
- The Reserve Bank has talked itself into hawkish territory. Governor Michele Bullock told Parliament on Friday that “upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising” — pointing to Middle East conflict pushing up oil and shipping costs, and AI-driven price pressures.
- Traders all but expect a hike on Tuesday. The ASX RBA Rate Tracker priced an 82% chance of a 25bp rise as at 17 September — up from 62% on 4 September — and reports put odds around 93% by Friday.
- Lenders are moving before the RBA does. Nine lenders have raised fixed rates in September alone; on 17 September NAB and ANZ lifted fixed rates by up to 0.20 percentage points (NAB’s one-year went 6.44% → 6.59%). Five lenders raised 115 fixed rates by an average of 0.27% in a single week, while just two cut variable rates — by a token 0.05%.
- The housing slowdown deepened — with one bright spot. National home prices fell 0.2% in August, a fifth straight drop and 2.7% below the March peak (regional values holding flat while capitals sit 3.6% down). APRA data shows 90-day arrears at 1.01% — yet auction clearances jumped to a 19-week high of 58.5%.
What it means for you
Where you sit decides what this week’s news means for your hip pocket.
🏦 On a variable rate
The average owner-occupier variable is 6.61% against a ~5.69% market low — on a $500k loan, that gap is roughly $300 a month. If the RBA adds 25bp on Tuesday, add ~$82 a month per $500k. Set your buffer today, not Tuesday afternoon.
⏳ Fixed rate expiring
Fixed specials are moving up, not down: nine lenders lifted fixed in September and the big four’s lowest advertised fixed is 6.34%. Australia’s lowest one-year fixed is still 5.79% (Police Credit Union) — if certainty matters, price it before Tuesday.
🔄 Thinking of refinancing
Cashbacks of up to $4,000 are still live and 50 lenders offer sub-6% variables. Ring your bank and ask to be priced like a new customer — refinancers are in a strong spot while lenders chase new business ($11.6bn refinanced via serviceability exceptions last quarter).
Smart moves this week
Four things you can do before the RBA calls it on Tuesday 29 September.
- Find your current interest rate — it’s on your loan statement or app. At or above the ~6.61% average, you’re paying the “staying” premium; best of market is ~5.69%.
- If you’re fixed, write down your expiry date and revert rate — and get quotes before Tuesday, because fixed pricing is rising into the decision.
- Ring your lender and ask for a better deal — 50 lenders are under 6%, so ask to be priced like a new customer. Check cashback end dates before switching.
- Diary Tue 29 September, 2:30pm (RBA call) and Wed 30 September (August CPI, the day after). A hike ≈ $82/month per $500k borrowed — check your buffer tonight so it’s a shrug, not a shock.
Where rates could head next
All four big banks are still aligned on the direction — only the timing differs.
The only big-four bank expecting a 25bp rise on 29 September, to 4.60%. Macquarie is also tipping September.
+25bp on 2–3 November, alongside a downgraded home-price outlook — reaffirmed 9 September.
+25bp at the November meeting to 4.60%. Also sees cuts arriving next year.
Chief economist Luci Ellis: November is “the base case”, peaking at 4.60% — cuts now start August 2027.
Translation: the debate is when, not whether — and the futures market has landed on the earlier date (82% as at 17 Sep). Plan around the rate you’re paying today — that’s the only one you can change.
Wondering what your rate should be?
REMC Finance is an AFG award-winning broker comparing 40+ lenders for borrowers Australia-wide. Contact me by phone, text or email, or submit an enquiry form — for a free, no-obligation rate health check. Or I can come to you — by phone, video or in person.