Weekly Market Brief
The week in rates, lenders and lending policy — translated into plain English for home owners, buyers and investors — wherever you are in Australia.
EDITION 03 · WEEK ENDING SUNDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2026
The numbers that matter
Your one-glance snapshot as at Monday 14 September 2026.
This week in 60 seconds
Four things that happened, and why they touch your mortgage.
- All four big banks now tip the next RBA move is a hike. Westpac U-turned this week to join NAB (September) and CBA/ANZ (November) — Westpac’s chief economist Luci Ellis now calls a November hike “the base case”, with cuts delayed to August 2027.
- The futures market repriced violently. Odds of a hike on 29 September went from about 10% three weeks ago to 72% as at 10 September — the fastest sentiment swing this year.
- The RBA’s deputy governor didn’t push back. Andrew Hauser told the ABC inflation is “too high… have we done enough, or is more needed?” — about as open a door to a hike as a central banker leaves.
- The rate war roars on underneath. 38 lenders have cut new-customer variable rates since 1 June — Canstar’s latest wrap counted 8 lenders cutting 33 variable rates and 4 lenders cutting 36 fixed rates in a single week.
What it means for you
Where you sit decides what this week’s news means for your hip pocket.
🏦 On a variable rate
The market low is 5.69% against a database average around 6.61% — a gap worth roughly $180 a month per $500k. A hike on top adds ~$82 more per $500k. A hike would be a bad time to discover you’re two percent above the market.
⏳ Fixed rate expiring
Australia’s lowest one-year fixed is 5.79% (Police Credit Union) — below most advertised variables. If certainty matters with a hike looming, fixed specials are worth pricing before the 29th.
🔄 Thinking of refinancing
The 38-lender cutting streak means refinancers still hold the cards. Sentiment is gloomy (Westpac–MI consumer sentiment fell 5.2% in September) but that gloom is precisely why lenders keep discounting for switchers.
Smart moves this week
Four things worth doing in the window before 29 September.
- Know your rate versus the 5.69% low / 6.61% average — if you’re near the average, get quotes this week.
- If you’re fixed, diary your expiry and revert rate — and note fixed pricing is already moving around ahead of the call.
- Ask your lender to price you like a new customer — with 38 lenders cutting since June, competition is the borrower’s friend.
- Diary Tue 29 September (RBA call, 2:30pm) and Wed 30 September (August CPI — the day after the meeting). Know your buffer either way.
Where rates could head next
All four big banks are aligned on the direction — only the timing differs.
The only big bank expecting the rise on 29 September itself. Macquarie also tips September.
+25bp on 2–3 November.
+25bp at the November meeting to 4.60%.
Luci Ellis: November “base case”, peaking 4.60% — cuts now start August 2027.
Translation: the debate is when, not whether. Futures have landed on the earlier date. Plan around the rate you’re paying today — that’s the only one you can change.
Wondering what your rate should be?
REMC Finance is an AFG award-winning broker comparing 40+ lenders for borrowers Australia-wide. Contact me by phone, text or email, or submit an enquiry form — for a free, no-obligation rate health check. Or I can come to you — by phone, video or in person.